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Report on Aggregate Financing to the Real Economy (Flows) in the First Three Quarters of 2018

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According to preliminary statistics, aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE) (flows) was RMB 15.37 trillion in the first three quarters of 2018, down RMB 2.32 trillion year on year (y-o-y). Specifically, RMB loans to the real economy registered an increase of RMB 12.8 trillion, RMB 1.34 trillion more than the same period of 2017; foreign currency-denominated loans to the real economy (RMB equivalent) recorded a decrease of RMB 191.3 billion, dropping RMB 160.8 billion further y-o-y; entrusted loans registered a decrease of RMB 1.16 trillion, dropping RMB 1.84 trillion further y-o-y; trust loans registered a decrease of RMB 465.2 billion, dropping RMB 2.25 trillion further y-o-y; undiscounted bankers’ acceptances recorded a decrease of RMB 678.6 billion, dropping RMB 1.14 trillion further y-o-y; net financing of corporate bond stood at RMB 1.59 trillion, up RMB 1.41 trillion y-o-y; outstanding local government special bonds reached RMB 1.7 trillion, up RMB 143.8 billion y-o-y; domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises amounted to RMB 309.9 billion, down RMB 291.8 billion y-o-y. AFRE (flows) reached RMB 2.21 trillion in September, up RMB 276.8 billion over August and down RMB 39.7 billion y-o-y.

By structure, RMB loans to the real economy accounted for 83.2% of AFRE (flows) in the first three quarters of 2018, up 18.4 percentage points y-o-y; foreign currency-denominated loans to the real economy (RMB equivalent) occupied -1.2%, down 1 percentage point y-o-y; entrusted loans accounted for -7.5%, down 11.4 percentage points y-o-y; trust loans occupied -3%, down 13.1 percentage points y-o-y; undiscounted bankers’ acceptances accounted for -4.4%, down 7 percentage points y-o-y; corporate bonds occupied 10.3%, up 9.3 percentage points y-o-y; local government special bonds accounted for 11%, up 2.2 percentage points y-o-y; and domestic equity of non-financial firms made up for 2%, down 1.4 percentage points.

Note 1: AFRE (flows) refers to the volume of financing provided by the financial system to the real economy. In the calculations of AFRE (flows), data are from PBC, CBIRC, CSRC, CCDC and NAFMII.

Note 2: PBC improved the statistical method of AFRE in July 2018. Specifically, PBC incorporated “asset-backed securities of depository financial institutions” and “written-off loans” into AFRE statistics under the item of “other financing.”

Note 3: On incorporating local government special bonds into AFRE statistics: Local government special bonds refer to the government bonds issued by local governments for public welfare projects with certain earnings, whose principal and interests will be repaid with the government funds or special income from the public welfare projects within a certain period of time as agreed. The issuance of local government special bonds has sped up since August, 2018 exhibiting visible replacement effect for bank loans and corporate bonds. In order to have the replacement effect reflected in the statistics the PBC has incorporated local government special bonds into AFRE since September, 2018.

The monthly comparable statistics of AFRE (flows) since 2017 are as follows.

Month

January

2017

February

2017

March

2017

April

2017

May

2017

June

2017

Flow of the Month (Unit: RMB 100 million)

37095

11046

24001

15604

13136

21131

In which: Local Government Special Bonds

0

0

1806

2019

1934

1991

Asset-backed Securities of Depository Financial Institutions

-129

-10

164

-505

294

113

Written-off Loans

253

149

846

210

277

1309

Month

July

2017

August

2017

September

2017

October

2017

November

2017

December

2017

Flow of the Month (Unit: RMB 100 million)

14983

17514

22451

12004

19139

15865

In which: Local Government Special Bonds

3326

1924

2517

1315

2282

849

Asset-backed Securities of Depository Financial Institutions

-505

446

324

61

248

1476

Written-off Loans

205

250

1276

271

481

2059

Month

January

2018

February

2018

March

2018

April

2018

May

2018

June

2018

Flow of the Month (Unit: RMB 100 million)

30673

11854

15685

17726

9458

14852

In which: Local Government Special Bonds

0

108

662

808

1012

1019

Asset-backed Securities of Depository Financial Institutions

-137

-146

387

821

377

272

Written-off Loans

320

261

1234

259

479

1737

Month

July

2018

August

2018

September

2018

Flow of the Month (Unit: RMB 100 million)

12161

19286

22054

In which: Local Government Special Bonds

1851

4106

7389

Asset-backed Securities of Depository Financial Institutions

123

501

895

Written-off Loans

176

377

1612

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