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Report on Aggregate Financing to the Real Economy (Outstanding) By End of October 2018

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According to preliminary statistics, outstanding aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE) reached RMB 197.89 trillion at end-October, up 10.2% year on year (y-o-y). Specifically, outstanding RMB loans to the real economy stood at RMB 132.53 trillion, up 13% y-o-y; outstanding foreign currency-denominated loans to the real economy (RMB equivalent) were RMB 2.4 trillion, down 3.5% y-o-y; outstanding entrusted loans registered RMB 12.71 trillion, down 8.4% y-o-y; outstanding trust loans reached RMB 7.95 trillion, decreasing 2.6% y-o-y; outstanding undiscounted bankers’ acceptances stood at RMB 3.72 trillion, down 15% y-o-y; outstanding corporate bonds were RMB 19.51 trillion, up 6.6% y-o-y; outstanding local government special bonds reached RMB 7.26 trillion, up 40.5% y-o-y; and outstanding domestic equity of non-financial firms amounted to RMB 6.97 trillion, up 8.3% y-o-y.

By structure, outstanding RMB loans to the real economy at end-October accounted for 67% of end-October AFRE, up 1.7 percentage points y-o-y; outstanding foreign currency-denominated loans to the real economy (RMB equivalent) occupied 1.2%, down 0.2 percentage point y-o-y; outstanding entrusted loans accounted for 6.4%, down 1.3 percentage points y-o-y; outstanding trust loans occupied 4%, down 0.5 percentage point y-o-y; outstanding undiscounted bankers’ acceptances accounted for 1.9%, down 0.5 percentage point y-o-y; outstanding corporate bonds occupied 9.9%, down 0.3 percentage point y-o-y; outstanding local government special bonds accounted for 3.7%, up 0.8 percentage point y-o-y; and outstanding domestic equity of non-financial firms made up for 3.5%, down 0.1 percentage point.

Note 1: AFRE (outstanding) refers to the outstanding financing provided by the financial system to the real economy at the end of a period (end of the month, end of the quarter or end of the year). In the calculation of AFRE, data are from PBC, CBIRC, CSRC, CCDC and NAFMII, etc.

Note 2: The PBC has improved the statistical method of AFRE since July 2018. Specifically, the PBC incorporated “asset-backed securities of depository financial institutions” and “written-off loans” into AFRE statistics under the item of “other financing.”

Note 3: Explanations for the inclusion of local government special bonds into AFRE statistics: local government special bonds are issued by local governments for public welfare projects with certain earnings, whose principal and interest will be repaid as government funds or special income from the public welfare projects within a certain period of time as agreed. Since August of this year, the issuance of local government special bonds has been accelerated, exhibiting visible replacement effect for bank loans and corporate bonds. With the aim to have accurate AFRE statistics, the PBC has incorporated “local government special bonds” into AFRE statistics since September 2018 due to this replacement effect. Local government special bonds are calculated according to the date which debts and creditor’s rights are registered with custodian institutions.

The monthly balance of AFRE (outstanding) and year-on-year growth rate of comparable statistics since 2017 are as follows:

Table 1: Adjusted Monthly AFRE (outstanding) Balance since 2017

Month

January 2017

February 2017

March 2017

April 2017

May  2017

June  2017

Outstanding (Unit: RMB 100 million)

1648295

1659291

1683133

1698347

1711078

1731455

In which: Local Government Special Bonds

34858

34858

36663

38683

40617

42608

Asset-backed Securities of Depository Financial Institutions

4749

4739

4903

4398

4692

4805

Written-off Loans

12615

12764

13610

13820

14097

15406

Month

July 2017

August 2017

September 2017

October 2017

November 2017

December 2017

Outstanding (Unit: RMB 100 million)

1745387

1762064

1783999

1795324

1813838

1828692

In which: Local Government Special Bonds

45933

47857

50374

51689

53971

54819

Asset-backed Securities of Depository Financial Institutions

4300

4746

5070

5131

5379

6855

Written-off Loans

15611

15861

17137

17408

17889

19948

Month

January 2018

February 2018

March 2018

April 2018

May  2018

June  2018

Outstanding (Unit: RMB 100 million)

1857716

1869244

1883713

1900219

1909414

1923668

In which: Local Government Special Bonds

54819

54927

55589

56397

57408

58427

Asset-backed Securities of Depository Financial Institutions

6718

6572

6959

7780

8157

8429

Written-off Loans

20268

20528

21763

22022

22500

24238

Month

July 2018

August 2018

September 2018

October 2018

Outstanding (Unit: RMB 100 million)

1934604

1952411

1972661

1978911

In which: Local Government Special Bonds

60278

64384

71773

72641

Asset-backed Securities of Depository Financial Institutions

8551

9053

9948

10135

Written-off Loans

24414

24791

26406

26851

Table 2: Adjusted Monthly Year-on-year Growth Rate of AFRE (outstanding) since 2017

Month

January 2017

February 2017

March 2017

April  2017

May   2017

June  2017

Growth of the Outstanding(%)

14.8

14.8

14.4

14.5

14.6

14.2

Month

July  2017

August 2017

September 2017

October 2017

November 2017

December 2017

Growth of the Outstanding(%)

14.8

14.5

14.4

14.4

13.9

13.4

Month

January 2018

February 2018

March 2018

April  2018

May    2018

June  2018

Growth of the Outstanding(%)

12.7

12.7

11.9

11.9

11.6

11.1

Month

July  2018

August 2018

September 2018

October 2018

Growth of the Outstanding(%)

10.8

10.8

10.6

10.2

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